ABSTRACT

The Hyogo and Sendai frameworks highlight the key role of disaster risk management (DRM). However, the guidance is limited on how to best conduct DRM activities, such as capability assessments, to reduce the impact of disasters. In this study, we examine the effectiveness of different ways of presenting capability assessments, both when dealing with so-called high impact/low probability (HILP) events and low impact/high probability (LIHP) events. More specifically, we introduce microworld experiments as a new approach to studying and developing DRM knowledge. This approach allows the researcher to retain some of the dynamics and complexity of the real DRM context while providing greater experimental control compared to field studies. We report the results from such a study in which forty-nine DRM professionals assumed the role of municipal decision-makers who were asked to balance investments in public services and goods with increasing response capability (in order to reduce losses from potential future adverse events), with or without support from capability assessments. The results show, as expected that it was harder to manage the trade-off between the cost of increasing response capability and benefits in terms of reduced losses in HILP situations compared to LIHP. Also, the results show that presenting capability assessments to the decision-makers increased the investments in capability and they became better at balancing the cost of investment with reduced losses. The results thus suggest that capability assessments can be useful to support decision-making for proactively reducing the impacts of disasters.