Björn Arvidsson
Doktorand
Cascading effects and critical infrastructure : Methods, challenges, and implications
Kaskadeffekter och kritisk infrastruktur : Metoder, utmaningar och implikationer
Författare
Summary, in English
Cascading effects, arising from intricate interactions among vital social and technical infrastructures, are essential to consider when assessing the societal impacts of various disruptions caused by, for example, natural hazards, climate change, and antagonistic attacks. Critical Infrastructures (CIs) form the backbone of society, and their interdependent nature amplifies the risk of cascading effects. To analyse and mitigate large-scale disruptions in CIs, numerous countries and organisations, including Sweden and the European Union, have implemented several resilience management programs and policies.
This thesis aims to enhance understanding and methodologies for analysing cascading effects across interdependent CIs, particularly within the context of the Swedish implementation of EU directives. Employing various methods such as scoping studies, qualitative content analysis, and vulnerability analysis, the research reveals both scientific and practical gaps in the consideration of cascading effects. The findings reveal an immature consideration of cascading effects in assessments in Sweden related to flood risk management and that CIs are frequently treated in isolation, hindering the identification of interdependencies and analysis of cascading effects. Challenges include a lack of
feasible analysis methods, data accessibility issues, national security and confidentiality considerations and resource constraints.
To address these challenges, the thesis proposes a simplified yet robust method (AB-CEM) aiding risk analysts and crisis managers in identifying interdependencies and cascading effects. It also advocates for a coordinated national initiative to gather CI data and establish secure data-sharing platforms
alongside explicit guidelines for handling sensitive data and an empirical library of cascading effects accounts.
The thesis explores and emphasises the importance of considering cascading effects in risk, vulnerability and resilience assessments to ensure comprehensive identification and mitigation of potential risks and vulnerabilities. Ignoring these effects could lead to significant consequences being overlooked, particularly in severe scenarios. Thus, integrating cascading effects into assessments, incentives and governance structures is crucial for effective governance and resilience-building efforts.
This thesis aims to enhance understanding and methodologies for analysing cascading effects across interdependent CIs, particularly within the context of the Swedish implementation of EU directives. Employing various methods such as scoping studies, qualitative content analysis, and vulnerability analysis, the research reveals both scientific and practical gaps in the consideration of cascading effects. The findings reveal an immature consideration of cascading effects in assessments in Sweden related to flood risk management and that CIs are frequently treated in isolation, hindering the identification of interdependencies and analysis of cascading effects. Challenges include a lack of
feasible analysis methods, data accessibility issues, national security and confidentiality considerations and resource constraints.
To address these challenges, the thesis proposes a simplified yet robust method (AB-CEM) aiding risk analysts and crisis managers in identifying interdependencies and cascading effects. It also advocates for a coordinated national initiative to gather CI data and establish secure data-sharing platforms
alongside explicit guidelines for handling sensitive data and an empirical library of cascading effects accounts.
The thesis explores and emphasises the importance of considering cascading effects in risk, vulnerability and resilience assessments to ensure comprehensive identification and mitigation of potential risks and vulnerabilities. Ignoring these effects could lead to significant consequences being overlooked, particularly in severe scenarios. Thus, integrating cascading effects into assessments, incentives and governance structures is crucial for effective governance and resilience-building efforts.
Avdelning/ar
- Avdelningen för Riskhantering och Samhällssäkerhet
Publiceringsår
2024-05-20
Språk
Engelska
Fulltext
Dokumenttyp
Doktorsavhandling
Förlag
Division of Risk Management and Societal Safety, Faculty of Engineering, Lund University
Ämne
- Other Engineering and Technologies not elsewhere specified
Nyckelord
- Cascading effects
- Critical infrastructure
- Resilience
- Risk
- Vulnerability
- Flood
- Governance
- GIS
Aktiv
Published
Handledare
- Jonas Johansson
- Henrik Hassel
- Nicklas Guldåker
- Alexander Cedergren
ISBN/ISSN/Övrigt
- ISBN: 978-91-8104-085-2
- ISBN: 978-91-8104-086-9
Försvarsdatum
14 juni 2024
Försvarstid
13:00
Försvarsplats
Lecture Hall V:A, building V, John Ericssons väg 1, Faculty of Engineering LTH, Lund University, Lund. The dissertation will be live streamed, but part of the premises is to be excluded from the live stream.
Opponent
- Peter Fekete (Prof.)