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Henrik Tehler

Henrik Tehler

Professor

Henrik Tehler

Application of supersoft decision theory in fire risk assessment

Författare

  • Henrik Tehler
  • Per-Erik Malmnäs

Summary, in English

The application of Supersoft Decision theory (SSD) to fire safety problems, and of decision analysis in general to decisions involving a high degree of epistemic uncertainty, are discussed. SSD and two traditional decision analytic methods employed earlier within the context of fire engineering are compared, particularly regarding how uncertainties are dealt with and the robustness of decisions – robustness concerning the likelihood that the alternative adjudged to be best will change when a reasonable degree of change in assessments of either the probabilities or the utilities involved occurs. Substantial differences between the three methods in decision robustness were noted. It was found that, since traditional decision analysis involving precise probability and utility values gives no indication of robustness, it can lead to incorrect conclusions, making it unsuitable in the present context. It is argued that methods not providing the decision maker with information on decision robustness are unsuitable in situations involving a high degree of epistemic uncertainty. A procedure is suggested involving use of Supersoft Decision theory and extended decision analysis to facilitate the choice between different fire protection alternatives for the case of a specific building.

Avdelning/ar

  • Avdelningen för Brandteknik
  • Avdelningen för Riskhantering och Samhällssäkerhet

Publiceringsår

2004

Språk

Engelska

Sidor

55-84

Publikation/Tidskrift/Serie

Journal of Fire Protection Engineering

Volym

14

Issue

1

Dokumenttyp

Artikel i tidskrift

Förlag

SAGE Publications

Ämne

  • Other Civil Engineering
  • Building Technologies

Nyckelord

  • epistemic uncertainty
  • supersoft decision theory
  • decision analysis
  • fire risk analysis

Status

Published

ISBN/ISSN/Övrigt

  • ISSN: 1042-3915