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Jonas Johansson

Jonas Johansson

Universitetslektor

Jonas Johansson

Risk-based multi-criteria decision analysis method for considering the effects of climate change on bridges

Författare

  • Amro Nasr
  • Jonas Johansson
  • Oskar Larsson Ivanov
  • Ivar Björnsson
  • Dániel Honfi

Summary, in English

Recent studies have identified many potential climate change impacts on bridges. Considering the sheer number of these potential impacts, how can a bridge owner prioritise which impacts to consider, and for which bridges? This paper proposes a risk-based multi-criteria decision analysis method for systematically addressing these two questions simultaneously. The proposed method can be used to address both extreme and non-extreme impacts as opposed to focussing solely on extreme impacts as has been done in previous prioritisation studies related to climate change risks. The proposed method is based on four main components of risk: hazard, impact, vulnerability and consequences. Several indices characterising these components are used to address the previous two questions. To reflect the uncertainty in the analysis, the different indices are assessed optimistically and pessimistically. Additionally, to ensure a more transparent decision-making process the inclusion of a strength of evidence assessment is also proposed. The applicability of the method is then demonstrated on three illustrative case studies for three different potential climate change impacts. It is concluded that the proposed method is both feasible and appropriately fulfils its purpose. Nevertheless, the proposed method should be more elaborately tested on practical bridge case studies to further establish its applicability.

Avdelning/ar

  • Avdelningen för Konstruktionsteknik
  • Avdelningen för Riskhantering och Samhällssäkerhet
  • Byggnadskonstruktion
  • Ekonomiavdelningen, LTH

Publiceringsår

2023

Språk

Engelska

Sidor

1445-1458

Publikation/Tidskrift/Serie

Structure and Infrastructure Engineering

Volym

19

Issue

10

Dokumenttyp

Artikel i tidskrift

Förlag

Taylor & Francis

Ämne

  • Infrastructure Engineering

Nyckelord

  • bridges
  • climate change
  • infrastructure safety
  • Multi-criteria decision analysis
  • prioritisation
  • risk
  • risk ranking
  • uncertainty

Status

Published

Projekt

  • Climate change impact on safety and performance of existing and future infrastructure

ISBN/ISSN/Övrigt

  • ISSN: 1573-2479