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Jonas Johansson

Jonas Johansson

Universitetslektor

Jonas Johansson

Probabilistic analysis of climate change impact on fungal decay of timber elements in ground contact and their long-term structural performance

Författare

  • Amro Nasr
  • Jonas Niklewski
  • Ivar Björnsson
  • Jonas Johansson

Summary, in English

Climate change can substantially affect infrastructure performance and safety. In this article, the impact of climate change on fungal decay of wooden infrastructure in ground contact is investigated. For this purpose, projections of three different climate change scenarios are used to assess the impact of climate change on fungal decay rate of untreated clear wood elements in ground contact in Sweden. The highest increase in the average decay rate is observed for four counties located in mid-Sweden, i.e. Örebro, Värmland, Västmanland, and Gävleborg. Furthermore, two illustrative examples are presented to demonstrate the impact of the increased decay rates on the structural performance and long-term reliability of timber elements in four selected counties, Skåne (southernmost Sweden), Örebro, Värmland, and Västmanland. In the first illustrative example, the impact of climate change on the bending moment capacity of untreated timber utility poles is assessed while in the second the impact on the long-term reliability of axially loaded untreated columns is investigated. In the four studied counties, it is found that climate change can have considerable impacts on the structural performance and long-term reliability of timber elements in ground contact.

Avdelning/ar

  • Avdelningen för Konstruktionsteknik
  • Avdelningen för Riskhantering och Samhällssäkerhet

Publiceringsår

2022-05-07

Språk

Engelska

Publikation/Tidskrift/Serie

Wood Material Science and Engineering

Dokumenttyp

Artikel i tidskrift

Förlag

Taylor & Francis

Ämne

  • Reliability and Maintenance
  • Other Materials Engineering

Nyckelord

  • Climate change
  • Monte Carlo simulation
  • probability of failure
  • reliability index
  • residual bending moment strength
  • timber decay

Status

Published

Projekt

  • Climate change impact on safety and performance of existing and future infrastructure

ISBN/ISSN/Övrigt

  • ISSN: 1748-0272