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Ny artikel om metod för analys av kaskadeffekter vid översvämningar

A methodological approach for mapping and analysing cascading effects of flooding events av Björn Arvidsson, Nicklas Guldåker och Jonas Johansson

Artikeln har blivit accepterade för publikation i tidskriften International Journal of River Basin Management, https://doi.org/10.1080/15715124.2022.2079655.

Abstract Current local or regional flood risk assessments, as required by the EU flood risk directive, rarely account for cascading effects due to interdependencies between critical infrastructures. However, it is essential to consider these effects, as they may severely impact areas outside the immediate flood risk area. The main purpose is to present and problematise a method (AB-CEM) for mapping and analysing cascading effects due to floods, aiming at also being relevant for other spatially widespread hazards. The method development and the pilot study, in Sweden, reveal that there is a prominent practical need for methods for mapping and analysing critical infrastructure interdependencies and cascading effects. Another key finding is that the method process and its results can serve as an important basis for decision-making about both proactive and reactive efforts in connection to geographically extensive hazards. We further conclude that there is a recurring problem regarding sensitive and secret data. More specifically, the conflicting interests of information availability and information security concerning critical infrastructures, which needs to be resolved at the national level and communicated through clear guidelines. The method is a much-needed step towards accounting for cascading effects of floods in practice.